Dr. Annie Andrews Tells VF How Lindsey Graham’s Death Is Changing the Race

Even Democrats concede that the path is narrow. “It is undoubtedly a real uphill climb,” says Democratic strategist James Carville. “I’m not going to blow smoke up your ass and tell you that it’s easy, but there is a path,” says Parmley. That path, according to Carville, runs through Black turnout. He pointed to a surge in Black voter turnout in South Carolina’s primary elections earlier this year. “I’ve never seen numbers like this. Southern Black folk, they got the memo.”

Democrats have been down this road before: a compelling candidate in a ruby red state raises an eye-popping sum, attracts national attention, and still gets clobbered. In 2020 Jaime Harrison raised nearly $133 million—more than any Senate campaign in history at the time—only to lose to Graham by more than 10 points. That same year, Kentucky fighter pilot Amy McGrath spent more than $92 million to lose to Mitch McConnell by nearly 20 points.

Before Graham’s death, Andrews had reason for optimism. A campaign-commissioned poll showed Graham leading Andrews 48% to 45%. She says her polling shows her outperforming a generic Democrat among independents, non-MAGA Republicans, and suburban voters. She’s heading into the fall with a healthy war chest of nearly $3.6 million cash on hand, according to her campaign.

Andrews believes her secret weapon is Donald Trump. She is betting that dissatisfaction with his second term and a broader anti-incumbent mood will make the state more competitive—and that the eventual Republican nominee will be hobbled by their close identification with the president.

Or it could always be Nancy Mace, who defeated Andrews in the 2022 race for South Carolina’s First Congressional District. In that election, Andrews had to take a leave of absence from her job at a children’s hospital amid death threats after Mace accused her of “child abuse” for supporting gender “surgery on young kids”—a charge Andrews vehemently denied. “I do not support gender-affirming surgery for anyone under 18 nor does my hospital perform those procedures,” Andrews said at the time.