For months, Elon Musk has been dropping decidedly unsubtle hints<\/a> that he believes in the great replacement, a conspiracy theory that liberal elites are \u201cimporting\u201d immigrants into the United States, Europe, and Australia to wage political and biological warfare against white people. In a contentious interview<\/a> that aired last week with Don Lemon, Musk said he doesn\u2019t \u201csubscribe to that\u201d before detailing what he does believe \u2014 which is effectively still great replacement theory.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n \u201cI\u2019m simply saying there\u2019s an incentive here,\u201d Musk said. \u201cIf illegal immigrants \u2014 which I think have a very strong bias to vote Democrat \u2014 the more they come into the country, the more they\u2019re likely to vote in that direction.\u201d But as Lemon points out, undocumented immigrants can\u2019t vote, nor can legal immigrants who are here on visas, or people with green cards. Musk said it\u2019s not just about votes but also about the census. \u201cThe House seat apportionment is proportionate to the number of people, not just the number of citizens,\u201d Musk said, adding that immigrants \u201coverwhelmingly go to places like California and New York.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n It\u2019s true that congressional apportionment is based on census population data. But as its name suggests, the decennial census is conducted every ten years. More importantly, Musk\u2019s argument betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of how the immigration system functions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Most of the people arriving at the border today won\u2019t be in the country by the time the next census is conducted in 2030. When someone crosses the border without authorization or asks for asylum at a port of entry, they aren\u2019t just released into the country indefinitely. They\u2019re given a hearing date in immigration court, often months or years in the future because of the significant and ever-growing backlog of immigration cases. Because of the backlog, the average adjudication time<\/a> for asylum cases is now a little over four years \u2014 a long time, yes, but still not long enough for people to be counted in the census. And most of those cases will end in denials: just 9 percent of cases decided in the 2023 fiscal year ended in asylum or another grant of relief, according to the Congressional Research Service<\/a>. The rest end in deportation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n The people who do <\/em>get asylum still can\u2019t vote \u2014 at least not immediately. Asylees have to wait a year after being granted asylum to apply for green cards, and at least five more years after that before applying for citizenship.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Though it\u2019s worth explaining how all of this works to understand how nonsensical Musk\u2019s beliefs are, the facts don\u2019t really matter to people who are convinced that the great replacement is actually happening. The real die-hards don\u2019t think it\u2019s a scheme to create a permanent Democratic majority; they think it\u2019s a plot to ethnically replace white Americans. At its core, the great replacement is about demographics, not democracy. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n The great replacement is a fundamentally racist, antisemitic conspiracy theory. Its adherents are preoccupied with birth rates. They believe there\u2019s a global plot to eradicate the white race; the \u201creplacement\u201d they fear is literal, not political. Musk has hinted at this before. In November, he favorably replied<\/a> to an antisemitic post on X that accused \u201cJewish populations\u201d of sending \u201chordes of minorities\u201d to Western countries. That\u2019s why tiki torch-wielding neo-Nazis chanted \u201cJews will not replace us\u201d in Charlottesville, Virginia in 2016 and why a mass shooter killed 11 people at a synagogue<\/a> in Pittsburgh a year later.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n In his interview with Lemon, Musk explained that what he really meant was that \u201ca prominent number of Jewish philanthropists fund groups that they should really take a closer look at.\u201d As for the tweets Musk shared about the \u201cHispanic invasion\u201d of America at the hands of Democrats and their elite masters, well, he wants us to believe it\u2019s not that serious. \u201cIf I quote something, it doesn\u2019t mean I agree with everything in it,\u201d Musk said. \u201cIt\u2019s just something that \u2014 I think this is something people should consider.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Musk is trying to have it both ways: he wants to send obvious great replacement dogwhistles, but, lest it scare advertisers away, he doesn\u2019t want anyone to accuse him of wholeheartedly believing in what he\u2019s saying. When it suits him, X is the most important social platform for information, with far-reaching implications for free speech and democracy. But when anyone criticizes or asks him to explain his own posts, he claims they were just tweets.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n