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As we close the book on one of the most predictable best-picture Oscar races in recent memory, it\u2019s worth highlighting just how anomalous Oppenheimer<\/em> remains as a modern-day front-runner. The last movie to go all the way with the Academy and approximate its global box-office gross of nearly $1 billion bowed a full 20 years ago<\/a>, in Lord of the Rings: Return of the King<\/em>. The last movie to truly, fully sweep the major televised precursor awards\u2014that is, SAG, BAFTA, the Golden Globes, and the Critics Choice Awards\u2014is Ben Affleck<\/strong>\u2019s Argo<\/em>, more than a decade ago. Or here\u2019s one: When is the last time a movie three hours long won best picture? For that, yes, once again, we must go back to that triumphant final entrant in the LOTR<\/em> trilogy.<\/p>\n Depending on how quickly you keyed into Oppenheimer<\/em>\u2019s potent combination of qualities\u2014its grave subject matter, its critical acclaim, its box-office explosion, its filmmaker\u2019s overdue narrative\u2014this thing has been over for maybe eight months, when Barbenheimer first took over American moviegoing. By that point, already, the Cannes Film Festival had premiered three movies that\u2019d go on to best picture nods of their own, in Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon,<\/em> and The Zone of Interest<\/em>. Past Lives<\/em> had already wowed Sundance and enjoyed a successful run in platform theatrical release. Telluride, Toronto, and Venice were around the corner, and they\u2019d go on to field the likes of The Holdovers<\/em>, American Fiction<\/em>, and Poor Things<\/em> and Maestro<\/em>, respectively. That\u2019s your best picture race. Some of us tried to spot a spoiler along the way. Barbie<\/em> as the cultural phenomenon. The Holdovers<\/em> as the feel-good throwback. American Fiction<\/em> as the savvy modern satire. But these movies were never really ahead. Along with the others, they\u2019ve been playing for second place to Oppenheimer.<\/em><\/p>\n The sheer dominance of Oppenheimer<\/em> may be rarer than you think, but you\u2018re not imagining it: it\u2019s been fairly easy to predict the best picture winner for the last three years. For those in the know, Everything Everywhere All at Once, CODA<\/em>, and Nomadland<\/em> were essentially guaranteed winners by the big night. By design, the Oscars come at the end of a long campaigning slog, putting their authoritative stamp on the season. It can feel less like ending with a bang than a whimper, though, when their choices so closely mirror those of various industry guilds and journalist organizations. For the last two years, the Academy\u2019s four acting winners have been the exact same as those chosen by the Screen Actors Guild. With the exception of Bong Joon-ho<\/strong>\u2019s thrilling Parasite<\/em> upset, the Academy\u2019s pick for best director has also won the directors\u2019 guild award every time across the last decade.<\/p>\n Part of this has to do with the power of consensus. You\u2019re talking about groups of thousands of voters left to agree on a single performance (maybe more accurately, a single narrative). No matter where you look, the majority has been behind Da\u2019Vine Joy Randolph<\/strong> and Robert Downey Jr.<\/strong> The town fell in love with their stories, between panel conversations and fancy luncheons and glitzy festival stops, and that simply never changed from acceptance to acceptance speech. (Not even in London<\/a>.) The Oscars have faced criticism for airing so late in the game\u2014and there\u2019s a point to be made about better sustaining interest, when things get so predictable, by striking in the heat of the season. But as Academy president Janet Yang<\/strong> told me last month<\/a>, the show airs in March for a reason: This voting body of more than 10,000 people needs to be given every possible opportunity to watch the nominees, especially those that are smaller or less accessible.<\/p>\n I tend to agree. Many precursor groups exist, really, to help predict and shape the Oscar race; their survival is predicated on laying out an exciting path toward the big night. But you don\u2019t really see the Critics Choice Awards, for example, thinking outside the box; they snubbed non-English-language movies almost across the board, despite them winding up a huge part of the awards race this year. With time, meanwhile, the Academy delivered historic embraces to both Anatomy of a Fall<\/em> and The Zone of Interest<\/em>, not to mention a landmark visual-effects nomination for Japan\u2019s Godzilla Minus One<\/em>. In part because of the longer runway to make their case, the movies now have a good chance for a major moment on the Oscar stage. If film is a bit less mass-media than it used to be, it\u2019s appropriate\u2014gratifying, even\u2014for the Oscars\u2019 point of difference to be platforming riskier, bolder, less familiar movies that can find a real audience here.<\/p>\n