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When Donald Trump<\/strong> announced<\/a> his 2024 run, he was at perhaps his lowest point politically. His party had just flopped in the 2022 midterms after hyping up a coming \u201cred wave.\u201d The January 6 committee, which had spent months detailing his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, was about to refer him to the Justice Department for criminal charges. And even the former president himself seemed to be going through the motions. It was way too early to write his political obituary, of course. But perhaps it was \u201ctime for the pro-democracy coalition to embrace a somewhat unfamiliar feeling,\u201d I wrote<\/a> back then. \u201cOptimism.\u201d<\/p>\n Now, as he all but seals up the GOP nomination after routing Nikki Haley<\/strong> on Super Tuesday<\/a>, that optimism is a bit harder to come by. Trump has once again bent the Republican Party to his will, dominating the primary with little resistance from even his rivals. There wasn\u2019t much drama Tuesday night, with Trump projected to win 11 states by 9:30 p.m. Though he couldn\u2019t officially clinch the nomination in terms of delegates, that day should come soon, setting the stage for a rematch this November with Joe Biden<\/strong> (who also coasted on Super Tuesday against minimal Democratic competition). \u00a0<\/p>\n Despite a disastrous four years in office, two impeachments, four indictments, and one violent insurrection, polls<\/a> suggest Trump\u2019s running even with or leading<\/a> Biden in the general election. This all comes as Biden has overseen a strong economy and an impressive list of accomplishments in this divided Washington.<\/p>\n \u201cPolls don\u2019t vote,\u201d as the Biden campaign mantra goes<\/a>. \u201cVoters do.\u201d But the mood among voters has seemed decidedly gloomy: Democrats are worrying about the sturdiness of their 2024 coalition amid divisions over Gaza policy<\/a> and concerns about Biden\u2019s age<\/a>, and a disturbing number of Republicans have either made their peace with or outright embraced Trump and his authoritarian agenda<\/a>. \u201cIt\u2019s the contest nobody wanted,\u201d as GOP strategist Kevin Madden<\/strong> put it to me, \u201cand it\u2019s a race to see who hits the bottom last.\u201d<\/p>\n Is this malaise just more of the typical anxiety from the pro-democracy set, who learned the hard way in 2016 not to get too comfortable? Or is Trump\u2019s dominance in the Republican primary a prologue for his potential return to power?<\/p>\n By the normal rules of politics, the answers to those questions would be easy. Trump is an aspiring tyrant<\/a> who is facing 91 felony charges (to which he has pleaded not guilty) and was recently ordered to pay more than a half-billion dollars in defamation<\/a> and fraud<\/a> cases. (He has asked a judge<\/a> to suspend the ruling in the defamation case, and he has appealed the judgment<\/a> in the fraud case.) Not to mention, he\u2019s seemingly<\/a> losing<\/a> the tenuous grip<\/a> he had on reality to begin with. He should be unelectable. But the normal rules don\u2019t necessarily apply here, as his election in 2016 and his ongoing reign over the GOP make clear.<\/p>\n Trump barely participated in the GOP\u2019s nominating process, skipping debates and acting as the party\u2019s de facto incumbent<\/a> while his rivals\u2014many of whom have now endorsed him and earned a spot on his VP short list<\/a>\u2014duked it out amongst themselves<\/a>. None of the challengers\u2014from sycophants like Tim Scott<\/strong> to wannabe heirs like Ron DeSantis<\/strong> and Vivek Ramaswamy<\/strong> to critics like Chris Christie<\/strong>\u2014made it past the Iowa caucuses. That is, except for Haley, who got the head-to-head matchup she wanted but still entered Super Tuesday with just a single victory to her name: Washington, DC, which Trump, ever gracious in defeat, claimed<\/a> he \u201cpurposely\u201d lost. \u201cHe\u2019s in a better position with the GOP electorate than he was in 2016,\u201d Madden observed, \u201cand he won in 2016.\u201d<\/p>\n And while the Republican establishment viewed him with some wariness in that election eight years ago, it has long since yielded to him. Capitol Hill Republicans are rallying around him<\/a>. Old standard-bearers like Mitch McConnel<\/strong>l are in retreat<\/a>, as are those we might generously describe as \u201cnormal\u201d members of the conference. And he\u2019s further reshaping the Republican National Committee<\/a> as he effectively ousts chair Ronna McDaniel<\/strong> and seeks to install Lara Trump,<\/strong> his daughter-in-law, and North Carolina GOP chair Michael Whatley,<\/strong> an ally and proponent of his lies about the 2020 election. \u201cHe\u2019s gonna be a shill,\u201d Anderson Clayton,<\/strong> chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party, told me of her Republican counterpart.<\/p>\n Whatley, Clayton said, was an establishment type when she took over the state Democratic Party, and she once had a grudging respect for him. But his potential ascent to the top of the RNC is a kind of case study in the \u201cdramatic turn\u201d the party has taken in recent years: \u201cYou\u2019ve got a whole party that\u2019s an election-denying party right now,\u201d Clayton said.<\/p>\n But if the primary season reflected the disturbing durability of Trump and his movement, it also hinted at their limitations and his potential vulnerability. Trump\u2019s most dominant win, in the Hawkeye State<\/a>, was a low-turnout affair in which the non-Trump vote split between DeSantis and Haley. His subsequent victories, while commanding, have nevertheless suggested<\/a> that a sizable portion of Republican<\/em> voters don\u2019t support him\u2014and a significant chunk of Haley backers say they\u2019d prefer<\/a> Biden, if it came down to it. The primary affirmed that the GOP is the \u201cparty of Trump,\u201d said Dan Kalik,<\/strong> head of politics and strategy at the progressive Swing Left. But \u201cas the stakes of the election become clear,\u201d Kalik told me, the \u201cenergy will be there\u201d to stand up against Trump\u2019s antidemocratic threat.<\/p>\n \u201cElections are a choice,\u201d Kalik said. \u201cOn one side, we have a current president who has spent his entire career and entire presidency trying to make sure Americans have an economy where everyone can thrive, and their rights and freedoms are protected. On the other side, there\u2019s someone who has no respect for democracy, who\u2019s leading an effort to strip Americans of their core, basic freedoms. It\u2019s such a clear contrast.\u201d<\/p>\n Even so, the general election is sure to be close, given the unsettling number of Americans Trump continues to count as true believers. And even if that confederacy of chaos isn\u2019t as big as the pro-democracy coalition, a few votes here and there in key swing states could end up proving decisive. Most Americans may \u201cchoose normal\u201d over crazy, as close Biden aide Bruce Reed<\/strong> suggested<\/a> to The<\/em> New Yorker<\/em>\u2019s Evan Osnos<\/strong> recently. But that doesn\u2019t mean Trump can\u2019t pull off an Electoral College victory like he did in 2016, especially with a cast of potential spoiler candidates\u2014including Robert F. Kennedy Jr<\/strong>.\u2014loitering around this race. \u201cIt\u2019s really going to come down to the wire,\u201d Madden, the GOP strategist, told me. \u201cIt\u2019s probably going to come down to five or six regions, and about four to five hundred thousand voters in those regions.\u201d<\/p>\n That\u2019s a discomfiting thought. It\u2019s bad enough to elect Donald Trump president once. The fact that there\u2019s a chance, let alone a good chance, that he could win out a second time, even after<\/em> voters lived through four years of his leadership? That speaks not only to the cynicism and cravenness of the GOP, but also to the dysfunction of this country\u2019s politics. Which isn\u2019t to say that I feel my cautious optimism from 2022 was misplaced. Trumpism, though, will remain an insidious force in American politics, and it\u2019ll take sustained effort to beat it back. \u201cI\u2019m confident we\u2019ll do that,\u201d Kalik told me. I am too\u2014I think.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n