\n<\/p>\n
The pundit class is saying it\u2019s over. Donald Trump<\/strong> has been anointed \u201cThe Presumptive.\u201d Thanks to his victory this week in the New Hampshire primary\u2014a state in which his 2024 archrival, Nikki Haley,<\/strong> placed much of her political capital\u2014Trump trumped her.<\/p>\n I\u2019d contend that Haley, however, had a more-than-respectable second-place showing. Going head-to-head with an ex-prez, and then nipping his heels by only 10 or 11 percentage points\u2014when many had said he\u2019d crush it\u2014is nothing to shake a stick at. In many towns and townships, she stuck it to him.<\/p>\n That said, in the clear-eyed light of morning, the math is the math. Trump is going to take Nevada next. And then he\u2019ll likely wipe up in South Carolina, Haley\u2019s home state. South Carolinians could rally around their favorite daughter, but it\u2019s really Trump-friendly country, and now that he\u2019s been threatened, he\u2019s going to cut the dogs off the chains. It should all be over but the shouting. Which is to say: The 2024 GOP presidential nomination is Trump\u2019s to lose. (In my wildest imaginings, I sometimes get a sense that with all of his shambolic rambling\u2014on the campaign trail and in the courthouse\u2014he could be one loose screw away from sinking his own boat. But maybe that\u2019s just wishful thinking.)<\/p>\n To Nikki Haley\u2019s credit, she is finally punching him directly in the face, challenging his mental competency\u2014and she\u2019s getting under his skin. She\u2019ll keep banging the drum about trying to get him to agree to debate her, and, well, maybe he\u2019ll blow his chance to wrap it up\u2014and we\u2019ll be on to Super Tuesday. But: highly unlikely.<\/p>\n So if you\u2019re playing the ponies, like many of us in this quadrennial race, it makes sense to turn your attention now to the next<\/em> key contest: the veepstakes.<\/p>\n Who will Trump choose to be his running mate? The question is not an idle or capricious one.<\/p>\n The reason is that the coming election will be among the most important in American history. And since we will have managed to nominate two guys too old<\/a> to be a law-enforcing park ranger (and whom more than half of the electorate don\u2019t think should be the two parties\u2019 nominees in the first place), the presidential timbre of Trump and Biden\u2019s VPs actually matters\u2014in actuarial terms. Mr. or Ms. number two, depending on the Big Guy\u2019s health (or felony conviction), may not unreasonably be called upon to serve as Commander in Chief.<\/p>\n We know that President Joe Biden<\/strong> is locked in with Kamala Harris<\/strong> as his pick for a second term. Any noise you hear to the contrary, just tune it out. Ain\u2019t gonna happen. So some of the drama and suspense in the coming weeks or months (and, oh, how the press and the political class love their drama during the long slog of the primary season!) will involve the parlor game surrounding who Trump will select as his vice presidential nominee.<\/p>\n There\u2019s not a lot of history or evidence to suggest that vice presidential picks are particularly important to voters\u2019 ultimate decision. But I think there is certainly a case to be made that the decision is much more significant when the presidential nominees are eight decades old. So let\u2019s assess the field of those most likely to get the Republican nod for the number two slot.<\/p>\n Given his flair for the dramatic, Trump would normally be inclined to throw a curveball. And yet this week he suggested<\/a>, counterintuitively, that his choice might not be a shocker at all: \u201cPeople won\u2019t be that surprised.\u201d<\/p>\n That could be because he actually has someone in mind who is on everyone\u2019s list. Or that he just thinks he might be inclined toward a conventional choice. Or, in classic Trump fashion, that he is engaging in willful misdirection, a maneuver to make the choice even more<\/em> surprising later on. (Or, of course, he could be intending<\/em> to choose a particular partner\u2014and then might completely change his reliably whimsical mind in a month\u2019s time.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n