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It\u2019s tough to predict what will happen at the 2024 Golden Globe Awards, a ceremony presented by an organization that\u2019s endured no small amount of turmoil in the last three years<\/a>. We know that the show will be broadcast on Sunday, January 7, for the first time on CBS<\/a>; we know it\u2019ll be hosted by comedian Jo Koy<\/strong><\/a>; we know that in addition to all the usual Golden Globe nominations<\/a>, the proceedings will include two new categories, for blockbuster films and standup specials<\/a>. Other than that, it\u2019s anyone\u2019s guess who will actually win<\/em> a Globe this year, on either the film or TV sides of the aisle.\u00a0<\/p>\n Still, VF<\/em>\u2019s awards obsessives gave it our best shot, peering into our crystal balls to forecast which stars and projects will go home with some shiny new hardware on Sunday night. Read on for our best guesses in every category.<\/p>\n Anatomy of a Fall<\/em><\/p>\n WINNER:<\/strong> Killers of the Flower Moon<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Maestro<\/em><\/p>\n Oppenheimer<\/em><\/p>\n Past Lives<\/em><\/p>\n The Zone of Interest<\/em><\/p>\n Now that the HFPA has added new voters to the roster, it\u2019s become a very different awards show to predict. The old HFPA would have gone for Oppenheimer<\/em>, we think\u2014a big, successful American movie from a British director whom everyone respects. But the new voters\u2014including many journalists of varying stripes\u2014might tilt slightly artier. Which is why we\u2019re predicting Killers of the Flower Moon<\/em>, a consensus choice between big-name commercial fare and more modern, politically minded cinema. \u2014Richard Lawson<\/em><\/p>\n Air<\/em><\/p>\n American Fiction<\/em><\/p>\n Barbie<\/em><\/p>\n The Holdovers<\/em><\/p>\n May December<\/em><\/p>\n WINNER:<\/strong> Poor Things<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n The fact that the group formally known as the HFPA gave this award to The Banshees of Inisherin<\/em> last year over eventual best picture winner Everything Everywhere All At Once<\/em> confirms that we can’t assume their choice will line up with the best picture race at the Oscars. We’ve got several strong contenders nominated here, including American Fiction, The Holdovers,<\/em> and May December<\/em>. Most likely, though, it\u2019s a race between blockbuster Barbie<\/em> (which has the most Globes noms of any film) and the critically acclaimed Poor Things.<\/em> Will the Globes voters go auteur and weird (they nominated Yorgos Lanthimos<\/strong>\u2019s The Favorite<\/em> in 2018, but it lost to Green Book<\/em>), or will they just honor the box office juggernaut Barbie<\/em>? It\u2019ll be close, but we think the addition of the new Cinematic Achievement category (where Barbie<\/em> will most likely win) actually hurts its chances here. \u2014Rebecca Ford<\/em><\/p>\n WINNER:<\/strong> The Boy and the Heron<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Elemental<\/em><\/p>\n Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse<\/em><\/p>\n The Super Mario Bros. Movie<\/em><\/p>\n Suzume<\/em><\/p>\n Wish<\/em><\/p>\n The surprise box office success of what may or may not be<\/a> Hayao Miyazaki<\/strong>\u2019s final film seems like enough to push this one across the finish line, even if Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse<\/em> is the more mainstream critical hit. Time for those international Globes voters to prove just how internationally-minded they can be. \u2014Katey Rich<\/em><\/p>\n WINNER:<\/strong> Barbie<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3<\/em><\/p>\n John Wick: Chapter 4<\/em><\/p>\n Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One<\/em><\/p>\n Oppenheimer<\/em><\/p>\n Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse<\/em><\/p>\n The Super Mario Bros. Movie<\/em><\/p>\n Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour<\/em><\/p>\n Gotta be Barbie<\/em>, right? Because it sure seems like this entire category was created<\/a> in order to give Barbie<\/em> a Golden Globe. Unless, of course, it\u2019s Taylor Swift<\/strong>. But no: getting Swift to attend the ceremony by slipping her a nomination is probably victory enough for the Eras concert movie. So again, I\u2019ll say: it\u2019s gotta be Barbie<\/em>. But only because Zack Snyder<\/strong>\u2019s Justice League<\/em> isn\u2019t eligible<\/a>. \u2014Hillary Busis<\/em><\/p>\n WINNER:<\/strong> Anatomy of a Fall<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Fallen Leaves<\/em><\/p>\n Io Capitano<\/em><\/p>\n Past Lives<\/em><\/p>\n Society of the Snow<\/em><\/p>\n The Zone of Interest<\/em><\/p>\n This category has probably never been so hotly contested, given that fully half of the nominees\u2014Past Lives<\/em>, The Zone of Interest<\/em>, and Anatomy of a Fall<\/em>\u2014are also competing up top in the best motion picture (drama) field. Of course, only one of this trio is competing for the equivalent Oscar, with France having submitted the Globes-snubbed The Taste of Things<\/em> over Anatomy<\/em> as its official contender and Past Lives<\/em> not eligible as an American film. This hinky Globes rule, allowing non-English-language U.S. dramas to contend here, has favored such fare as Minari<\/em> in the past. But I\u2019m reminded of when another such case, The Farewell<\/em>, lost to an even stronger international Oscar player in Parasite<\/em>. Not to say Anatomy of a Fall<\/em> is at that eventual best-picture phenomenon level this awards season, but Justine Triet<\/strong>\u2019s layered legal drama has been cleaning up on the critics\u2019 circuit thus far, and the Globes\u2019 wide embrace of it suggests this may continue. \u2014David Canfield<\/em><\/p>\nFILM AWARDS<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Best Motion Picture \u2013 Drama<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Best Motion Picture \u2013 Musical or Comedy<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Best Motion Picture \u2013 Animated<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Best Motion Picture \u2013 Non-English Language<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture \u2013 Drama<\/strong><\/h2>\n