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The deadline is Thursday at 11:59 p.m. More than 100,000 members of the United Auto Workers, the biggest auto union in America, will find out whether they\u2019ve won anything close to the four-year contract with a 46% wage bump they\u2019ve been demanding, or whether they will be launching a historic strike. Detroit\u2019s Big Three automakers\u2014Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, the successor to Chrysler\u2014might be forced to shutter factories just as the industry struggles to rebound from the pandemic.<\/p>\n
Joe Biden<\/strong> has a lot at stake too. A ten-day strike could cost the economy an estimated $5 billion<\/a>. But the ramifications for the president extend far beyond the particulars of how the immediate negotiations play out. Biden, who recently declared himself \u201cthe most pro-union president in American history,\u201d has been lining up the support of major labor unions for his 2024 reelection campaign\u2014with the glaring exception of the UAW, which has pointedly withheld an endorsement. When Biden, over Labor Day weekend, said he didn\u2019t think a strike would happen, the UAW\u2019s new president, Shawn Fain,<\/strong> threw a brushback pitch. \u201cI think a strike can reaffirm to him where the working class people in this country stand. And, you know, it\u2019s time for politicians in this country to pick a side,\u201d Fain told CNBC. \u201cEither you stand for a billionaire class where everybody else gets left behind, or you stand for the working class.\u201d<\/p>\n A Democratic operative close to the issue tells me that Fain\u2019s forceful flexing of leverage caught the Biden team somewhat off guard. The president has tried to walk a tricky line when it comes to the auto industry: Two of his prized legislative achievements\u20142021\u2019s infrastructure bill and 2022\u2019s Inflation Reduction Act\u2014included hefty financial incentives for companies that invest in electric-vehicle plants. That angered the auto unions because fewer workers are needed to build EVs than traditional cars, and because most of the batteries needed for EVs are manufactured either overseas or in non-union American factories.<\/p>\n The administration tried playing catch-up in August, announcing $15.5 billion in funding and loans, the bulk of the money targeted at converting existing auto plants to EV facilities and retraining union workers. As you might expect, his presumed 2024 Republican challenger is trying to make mischief. \u201cBiden\u2019s Electric Vehicle mandate will murder the U.S. auto industry,\u201d the Trump campaign claimed<\/a> last week, \u201cand kill countless union autoworker jobs forever.\u201d<\/p>\n The dealmaking in Detroit is only one part of a wider struggle between workers, industry, and Washington politicians as technology reshapes the economy. Much like EVs, artificial intelligence is also a major point of contention\u2014but in Hollywood, where studios and striking writers and actors have been locked in a months-long standstill. \u201cThe question is, Who is going to have the balance of power? Who is going to have control over these things and make money from them?\u201d says Alex Colvin<\/strong>, the dean of Cornell\u2019s School of Industrial and Labor Relations. \u201cThis is a critical period.\u201d<\/p>\n For political alliances as well. Democrats have spent years chasing white working-class voters, mostly in vain. In 2020, Biden won back a crucial share of them in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Union membership rates in states like these remain at a historic low, but there are signs of a shift in momentum, with organizing efforts at Amazon warehouses and Starbucks stores as well as behind the Uber and Lyft wheels. Not to mention: the economic and racial mixture of unions has also grown more diverse. How Biden navigates all of these labor currents will have a big impact on what are likely to be close races in 2024 battleground states.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re clearly seeing an upsurge of worker activity with an understanding that technology, whether it\u2019s AI or other impacts on their workplace, is changing their leverage with employers,\u201d says Neal Kwatra,<\/strong> a Democratic strategist who has worked with both labor unions and elected officials. \u201cThere are definitely some Democratic elected officials around the country who are pro-worker, who are pro-union, who are finding ways to be concretely and substantively helpful to these workers\u2019 struggles. But I do not think the party as a whole understands the moment that we are in.\u201d<\/p>\n One Democrat who clearly gets it is Elissa Slotkin.<\/strong> \u201cWhat I\u2019ve said to my friends and supporters in labor is, if we don\u2019t use this moment, shame on us. You\u2019re seeing that with UAW right now,\u201d says the Michigan congresswoman, who is running to become one of Michigan\u2019s US senators. \u201cWe\u2019ve got to make sure that people at these new [EV] factories are paid a living wage. That\u2019s what just went on in Lordstown\u2014they unionized and they\u2019re leveraging that affiliation for more money, more benefits<\/a>. We have to get that right. But in terms of who is supporting policies that are pro-union, there is only one party doing that. I know Donald Trump<\/strong> has made electric vehicles his new \u2018woke\u2019 culture war. Those vehicles are going to be made. And I am always going to pick Team America over Team China making those damn vehicles.\u201d<\/p>\n In the past year Biden has dodged three labor bullets\u2014standoffs at UPS, West Coast ports, and in the freight railroad industry, all of which could have blown holes in the economy, ended in agreements, not strikes. Maybe he\u2019ll get lucky again in Detroit tonight. Earning the votes of union members next year, though, is still going to take a lot more than luck.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n