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When Senator Bob Menendez<\/strong> left the courthouse in Newark in 2017 after the federal corruption case brought against him ended in a mistrial, he issued a stark message<\/a> to his perceived political opponents. \u201cTo those who were digging my political grave so they could jump into my seat, I know who you are and I won\u2019t forget you,\u201d the New Jersey lawmaker said then. When asked to elaborate, Menendez responded, \u201cit speaks for itself. They know who they are and I know who they are.\u201d The following year, he won reelection to his third term by a significant margin.<\/p>\n Now, six years after avoiding a conviction as the result of a deadlocked jury, the Justice Department and the FBI are reportedly investigating Menendez again\u2014specifically whether he and his wife, Nadine,<\/strong> didn\u2019t report gifts of money, jewelry, a luxury car, and an apartment in Washington in exchange for political favors for a halal meat company, which is also under investigation. \u201cI am sure it is going to end up in absolutely nothing,\u201d Menendez said in a statement to NBC News<\/a>. And just as a cloud of potential legal trouble hangs over him once more, Menendez is up for reelection in 2024. (Nadine\u2019s attorney declined to comment<\/a> to The New York Times.<\/em>)<\/p>\n Headed into the 2024 election, the stakes for the Democratic Party couldn\u2019t be higher. Details of the Menendez investigation are still coming out\u2014including a curious anecdote involving $250,000 worth of bars of gold bullion belonging to Nadine reported by The New York Times<\/em><\/a>)\u2014raising questions whether the senator will be a liability for Democrats\u2019 ability to hold on to their Senate majority. After all, Republicans are no strangers to winning statewide in New Jersey, and just two years ago Democratic governor Phil Murphy<\/strong> faced an unexpectedly close reelection race.<\/p>\n Yet, back in the Garden State, there\u2019s a growing consensus that Menendez, however embattled, is a politician made of Teflon. \u201cHe\u2019s been down this road before\u2026It\u2019s just not stuck,\u201d a political strategist who has worked for Republicans in New Jersey, told Vanity Fair.<\/em> \u201cIt would get a little bit of coverage and like everybody would move on and people in New Jersey, other elected officials in the party, would kind of keep their powder dry about it.\u201d<\/p>\n A New Jersey politician echoed this sentiment: \u201cThe last time around no one ever wavered,\u201d they said. Plus this time, there\u2019s bigger news in the politician-faces-major-legal-ramifications arena.<\/p>\n \u201cI would\u2019ve probably at one point said I thought it was maybe specific to New Jersey, but I just feel politics in general is trending this way where things that were scandals previously\u2014and maybe New Jersey was ahead of the curve on this for Menendez\u2014that otherwise would be an issue just like aren\u2019t for voters anymore and they\u2019re willing to look the other way,\u201d\u00a0the political strategist told VF.<\/em> With a thrice-indicted former president leading the Republican Party primary, does the Menendez investigation even register? \u201cIt\u2019s almost like nothing shocks anymore.\u201d<\/p>\n Nationally, a person close to Democrats\u2019 thinking on Senate campaign strategy, said Menendez isn\u2019t a top concern at the moment\u2014especially as Democrats have to hold on to seats in red states like Montana and West Virginia. (Menendez has not officially announced that he is running for reelection in 2024.) \u201cNew Jersey elects Democrats to federal office and it\u2019s highly unlikely to be amongst the states that will determine control of the Senate,\u201d a national Democratic strategist said, noting that Democrats are monitoring the race.<\/p>\n Menendez also appears to be in luck. There are enough toss-up races in traditionally swing states that Republicans are \u201cgoing to be laser focused\u201d on races in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada, in addition to Montana and West Virginia, per Republican strategist Alex Conant,<\/strong> who worked on Marco Rubio<\/strong>\u2019s campaign. And New Jersey is such an expensive media market to play in, it\u2019s more likely that Republicans would prioritize investing elsewhere. \u201cThat said, we live in unpredictable political times, and stranger things have happened,\u201d Conant said. But New Jersey Republicans haven\u2019t put forward any top-tier candidates for Menendez\u2019s seat, and are reportedly<\/a> eyeing some down-ballot races that may be more competitive this cycle.<\/p>\n The Senate has long been a white whale for Republicans in the state, who have managed to clinch the governor\u2019s mansion but seen Democrats in the two Senate seats for decades. \u201cIf [Chris]<\/strong> Christie<\/strong> had run for senator, he would never have won,\u201d another strategist in the state said.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Menendez is insulated from any meaningful primary challenge, insiders say. \u201cNew Jersey is still very dominated by a county kind of boss structure\u2026We\u2019re the last vestiges of a machine-style selection process,\u201d the politician said. \u201cIt\u2019s next to impossible to win a statewide primary.\u201d In 2018, Menendez beat his primary opponent, Lisa McCormick,<\/strong> 62.3% to 37.7%. He went on to win handily over Republican Bob Hugin<\/strong> by 54% to 42%.<\/p>\n Plus, if things really do go south for Menendez, Murphy is in the governor\u2019s mansion, not Christie\u2014the governor in power for much of the time Menendez was first under investigation\u2014who would have appointed a Republican in Menendez\u2019s stead had the senator stepped down. But getting to that point would necessitate much more than just an investigation: \u201cIt probably would take an indictment, a timeline with the indictment, and then some conversation with him before you would see any major party figure call for him to step down,\u201d the New Jersey politician said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n