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Autonomous vehicle technology company Aurora told investors last week that it expects to have more than 30,000 self-driving trucks on the road generating $5 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2030 \u2014 an audacious plan considering it expects to end 2026 with just 200 driverless trucks and an $80 million revenue run rate.<\/p>\n
CFO David Maday contends the seemingly outsized target isn\u2019t as large or as out of reach as it might appear.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile 30,000 kind of feels like a lot \u2014 and it does in the autonomy space for sure \u2014 in terms of trucks relative to the overall market, it\u2019s kind of pretty small,\u201d he told TechCrunch in a recent interview, adding that the four major truck manufacturers produce anywhere between 250,000 and 300,000 new trucks a year. \u201cI don\u2019t think it\u2019s aspirational,\u201d he added, \u201cI think we can do it.\u201d<\/p>\n
Investors haven\u2019t exactly embraced Aurora\u2019s 2030 vision. Shares have continued to slide since the company\u2019s annual analyst and investor day<\/a> on September 23. On Monday, shares closed down 12.42%, to $5.29.<\/p>\n But investors have time to come around and, according to Maday, the big \u201cunlock\u201d for Aurora starts in 2027 and accelerates from there. The company expects to go from 200 driverless trucks at the end of 2026 to more than 1,000 a year later.<\/p>\n Today, Aurora operates what it calls a transportation-as-a-service business \u2014 a proof-of-concept model that it plans to limit to about 500 trucks. It owns and operates the self-driving trucks and charges its customers, including Detmar Logistics, Hirschbach, McLane, and Werner about a $2 per mile, a rate that includes a fuel surcharge.<\/p>\n That works out to roughly the same rates as other carriers\u2019 typical pricing. The real shift \u2014 and the real savings, Maday says \u2014 will happen next year as when Aurora begins moving to a driver-as-a-service model. Instead of Aurora owning the trucks, customers will buy the self-driving trucks and pay Aurora a per-mile subscription fee for the self-driving technology, which the company expects to be about $0.85. Under this model, the customers will own and maintain the truck, while Aurora maintains the self-driving system and its accompanying hardware.<\/p>\n Moving the trucks off Aurora\u2019s balance sheet is critical if the company wants to scale \u2014 and it\u2019s likely what investors are paying attention to. The company said it expects to reach breakeven gross margins (meaning revenue would cover the direct costs of running the trucks) on a run-rate basis in the first half of 2027 with around 500 trucks on the road.<\/p>\n The next big leap comes at the end of 2027 with Aurora\u2019s third-generation hardware\u2014 the sensors, computers, and other equipment that let its trucks drive themselves \u2014 which will be mass-produced autonomous vehicle hardware built by its partner, Aumovio (formerly known as Continental). Aumovio isn\u2019t just engineering and manufacturing the hardware kit; the company is also financing it for Aurora \u2014 easing the financial burden on the self-driving truck company. Aumovio will also service and repair the kits for customers.<\/p>\n Aurora plans to expand its operations at the same time. By 2030, the company expects to grow beyond a few states in the South to the vast majority of the continental U.S., according to Maday.<\/p>\n \u201cBy 2028, I expect that our cost structures are going to be really outstanding, that\u2019s why you see our gross margin starting to take off \u2026\u201d Maday said. \u201cOnce you get to that point, I think going into ride hailing is fine,\u201d he said, confirming that Aurora still plans to eventually enter the robotaxi market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n When you purchase through links in our articles, we may earn a small commission<\/a>. This doesn\u2019t affect our editorial independence.<\/em><\/p>\n