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Even Democrats concede that the path is narrow. \u201cIt is undoubtedly a real uphill climb,\u201d says Democratic strategist James Carville. \u201cI\u2019m not going to blow smoke up your ass and tell you that it\u2019s easy, but there is a path,\u201d says Parmley. That path, according to Carville, runs through Black turnout. He pointed to a surge in Black voter turnout in South Carolina\u2019s primary elections earlier this year. \u201cI\u2019ve never seen numbers like this. Southern Black folk, they got the memo.\u201d<\/p>\n
Democrats have been down this road before: a compelling candidate in a ruby red state raises an eye-popping sum, attracts national attention, and still gets clobbered. In 2020 Jaime Harrison raised nearly $133 million\u2014more than any Senate campaign in history at the time\u2014only to lose to Graham by more than 10 points. That same year, Kentucky fighter pilot Amy McGrath spent more than $92 million to lose to Mitch McConnell by nearly 20 points.<\/p>\n
Before Graham\u2019s death, Andrews had reason for optimism. A campaign-commissioned poll showed Graham leading Andrews 48% to 45%. She says her polling shows her outperforming a generic Democrat among independents, non-MAGA Republicans, and suburban voters. She\u2019s heading into the fall with a healthy war chest of nearly $3.6 million cash on hand, according to her campaign.<\/p>\n US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on July 14, 2026.<\/span>Saul Loeb\/Getty Images<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n Andrews believes her secret weapon is Donald Trump. She is betting that dissatisfaction with his second term and a broader anti-incumbent mood will make the state more competitive\u2014and that the eventual Republican nominee will be hobbled by their close identification with the president.<\/p>\n Or it could always be Nancy Mace, who defeated Andrews in the 2022 race for South Carolina\u2019s First Congressional District. In that election, Andrews had to take a leave of absence from her job at a children\u2019s hospital amid death threats after Mace accused her of \u201cchild abuse\u201d for supporting gender \u201csurgery on young kids\u201d\u2014a charge Andrews vehemently denied. \u201cI do not support gender-affirming surgery for anyone under 18 nor does my hospital perform those procedures,\u201d Andrews said at the time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n