\n<\/p>\n
In an essay<\/a> on Wednesday, Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, weighed in on the debate over whether Chinese AI company DeepSeek\u2019s success implies that U.S. export controls on AI chips<\/a> aren\u2019t working.<\/p>\n Amodei, who recently made the case for stronger export controls in an op-ed<\/a> co-written with former U.S. deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger, says in the essay he believes current export controls are slowing the progress of Chinese companies like DeepSeek. Compared to the performance of the strongest U.S.-produced AI models, Amodei says, DeepSeek\u2019s fall short when factoring in the release time frame.<\/p>\n \u201cDeepSeek produced a model close to the performance of U.S. models 7-10 months older, for a good deal less cost (but not anywhere near the ratios people have suggested),\u201d Amodei said. \u201c[This is] an expected point on an ongoing cost reduction curve. What\u2019s different this time is that the company that was first to demonstrate the expected cost reductions was Chinese.\u201d<\/p>\n Amodei compares one of DeepSeek\u2019s flagship models, DeepSeek V3<\/a>, to Anthropic\u2019s Claude 3.5 Sonnet<\/a>, which he says cost a \u201cfew $10M\u2019s\u201d to train. Sonnet\u2019s training finished 9 to 12 months ago, while DeepSeek\u2019s model was trained in November or December \u2014 yet Sonnet remains ahead in a number of \u201cinternal and external evals,\u201d Amodei notes.<\/p>\n \u201cU.S. companies [are also] achieving the usual trend in cost reduction,\u201d Amodei added. \u201cThe efficiency innovations DeepSeek developed will soon be applied by both U.S. and Chinese labs to train multi-billion dollar models.\u201d<\/p>\n Amodei, who in the essay calls DeepSeek \u201cvery talented engineers\u201d that \u201cshow why China is a serious competitor to the U.S.,\u201d foresees a fork in the road depending on which export policies the Trump administration embraces. Before Trump took office, the outgoing Biden administration imposed<\/a> new restrictions on hardware exports that are scheduled to take effect in the coming months, but that could be curtailed should Trump wish to do so.<\/p>\n If Trump strengthens export rules and prevents China from obtaining what Amodei describes as \u201cmillions of chips\u201d for AI development, the U.S. and its allies could potentially establish a \u201ccommanding and long-lasting lead,\u201d Amodei claims. If, on the other hand, the U.S. doesn\u2019t make it more challenging for China to import AI chips, the country could \u201cdirect more talent, capital, and focus\u201d to \u201cmilitary applications\u201d of AI technologies, Amodei fears.<\/p>\n \u201cCombined with its large industrial base and military-strategic advantages, this could help China take a commanding lead on the global stage,\u201d Amodei said. \u201cTo be clear, the goal here is not to deny China or any other authoritarian country the immense benefits in science, medicine, quality of life, and so on that come from very powerful AI systems. Everyone should be able to benefit from AI. The goal is to prevent them from gaining military dominance.\u201d<\/p>\n It seems likely that Amodei will get his preferred outcome<\/a>. In a Senate hearing on Wednesday, billionaire businessman Howard Lutnick, Trump\u2019s pick for commerce secretary, accused DeepSeek of stealing American IP<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat this showed is that our export controls, not backed by tariffs, are like a whack-a-mole model,\u201d Lutnick said. \u201cChinese tariffs should be the highest.\u201d<\/p>\n As commerce secretary, Lutnick would have a key role in carrying out Trump\u2019s plans to raise and enforce tariffs.<\/p>\n OpenAI, Anthropic\u2019s chief rival, has also called on the Trump administration to take more aggressive steps to ensure U.S. dominance in AI. In a recently published policy doc<\/a>, OpenAI warned that if the U.S. doesn\u2019t attract the necessary global funds for AI projects, they\u2019ll \u201cflow to China-backed projects\u201d and \u201c[strengthen] the Chinese Communist Party\u2019s global influence.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n