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The investigations<\/a> and resignations swirling around New York City mayor Eric Adams<\/strong> have multiplied nearly nonstop for the past year. For that whole time, the disclaimer has been consistent whenever I asked his possible political challengers and their advisers about plans for challenging the mayor in a 2025 campaign: Only if Adams himself is indicted.<\/em><\/p>\n Well, that caveat crumbled this morning when Damian Williams,<\/strong> the United States attorney for the Southern District of New York, unsealed a five-count federal indictment against Adams. The charges<\/a> include bribery, wire fraud, and conspiracy to receive campaign contributions by foreign nationals. The allegations stem largely from his victorious 2021 run for City Hall, as prosecutors claim he received campaign donations and travel benefits from entities connected to the government of Turkey in exchange for, as mayor, pressuring New York City Fire Department officials to approve an occupancy permit for the new Turkish consulate building that had not passed a fire-safety inspection. If those charges prove true, they\u2019re both very on-brand<\/a> for Adams\u2014combining his long-running love<\/a> for international excursions and glitz<\/a> with his background in law enforcement\u2014and depressingly petty and stupid.<\/p>\n The city\u2019s history of political corruption is long and tawdry, but this is a first: No sitting mayor has ever been formally accused of criminal acts. Adams insists that any charges are \u201centirely false.\u201d In a short video released Wednesday night after The New York Times<\/em> broke<\/a> the news of the impending indictment, the mayor said he would \u201cfight these injustices with every ounce of my strength and my spirit.\u201d He is a formidable fighter willing to work almost any angle in his defense. Adams has already invoked racism<\/a> as a possible motivation for criticism of his administration; he has also alluded<\/a> to the far-fetched idea of the federal investigations as being part of a Biden administration conspiracy to exact revenge for the mayor\u2019s criticism of the president\u2019s border policies.<\/p>\n Fending off the criminal charges will be tough for Adams, but the judicial process will be fairly slow. Faster-moving, more difficult, and well-underway is the political battle to hold onto his job. He\u2019s already lost his police commissioner and schools chancellor to recent resignations<\/a>; more top staff may now head for the exits. Rev. Al Sharpton,<\/strong> an Adams ally, has already delivered a worrisome signal, with the Times<\/em> reporting<\/a> he has \u201cexpressed concern\u201d that the mayor\u2019s mess could become a drag on other Democrats this fall, including Kamala Harris.<\/strong><\/p>\n Calls for Adams\u2019s resignation are escalating, but, so far at least, they\u2019re mostly from Adams\u2019s already declared reelection opponents or his long-standing adversaries, including Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez<\/strong> and the Working Families Party<\/a>. Key players to watch are Governor Kathy Hochul,<\/strong> who has had a friendly relationship with Adams but who has often miscalculated the city\u2019s political dynamics; Senator Chuck Schumer,<\/strong> whose relationship with Adams has been cordial if mostly distant (though Schumer\u2019s reaction to the indictment was fairly ominous: \u201cNo one is above the law, including the mayor of New York City\u201d); and House Democratic majority leader Hakeem Jeffries.<\/strong> Jeffries is plenty busy at the moment, marshaling campaign troops to try to win New York congressional races in November, but he and Adams, both from Brooklyn, have very different personalities and politicians, and they have clashed in the past<\/a>.<\/p>\n The city charter stipulates<\/a> that if a mayor leaves office early, they are replaced by the city\u2019s public advocate. This means that Democrat Jumaane Williams<\/strong> would move into the top job temporarily, with a special election required to take place within roughly 90 days. That\u2019s when the fun would really start, and it\u2019s why the already declared and most plausible contenders have quickly shifted from saying, \u201cOnly if Adams himself is indicted\u201d to \u201cIf Adams quits.\u201d Some would be better off if Adams departs soon; some would prefer he stay in office but decline to run for reelection next year. Here\u2019s who to watch and the calculations they are making right now:<\/p>\n The 2013 favorite<\/strong><\/p>\n For a long time, Christine Quinn<\/strong> looked to be on track to become the city\u2019s first female mayor. But she got caught in the progressive backlash to three terms of plutocrat Mayor Michael Bloomberg<\/strong> and lost to Bill de Blasio.<\/strong> Lately, Quinn has been doing good work by running a nonprofit called Win that provides shelter and services to homeless women and children. But 11 years is a very long time to be off the radar with city voters.<\/p>\n The 2021 near miss<\/strong><\/p>\n Kathryn Garcia<\/strong> lost to Adams by just 7,197 votes, or less than 1%, in the 2021 Democratic primary, the decisive contest in New York mayoral elections. That narrow margin and the fact that Garcia\u2019s technocratic image would seemingly be a welcome antidote to all the Adams drama makes her a logical candidate. However, Garcia is said to be very happy in her current job as state director of operations in the Hochul administration and has no interest in running again now.<\/p>\n The existing 2025 field<\/strong><\/p>\n Brad Lander<\/strong> has the strongest recent track record of winning actual city elections\u2014three terms as a Brooklyn city councilman followed by, in 2021, a citywide contest to become comptroller. His campaign told The New York Times<\/em><\/a> in July that it expected to have $3 million once anticipated matching funds were included; on the other hand, Lander may be too far left for some voters, and his attempts to be nuanced regarding Israel and Gaza may please no one. Zellnor Myrie<\/strong> is young (37) and energetic; he\u2019s also little-known outside his Brooklyn state senate district. Jessica Ramos<\/strong> is young (39), charismatic, and somewhat better known outside her Queens state senate district. Scott Stringer,<\/strong> at 64, is the veteran: a former state assemblyman, borough president, and city comptroller. Stringer is making his second bid for mayor; the last one, in 2021, was derailed by a sexual misconduct allegation. (He has denied<\/a> any wrongdoing.)<\/p>\n The possible interim mayor<\/strong><\/p>\n Jumaane Williams<\/strong> is a left-wing activist turned politician. Williams, also from Brooklyn, spent two terms on the City Council before winning a 2019 special election to become a public advocate. Ninety days as interim mayor would give Williams a very large platform.<\/p>\n The dark horses<\/strong><\/p>\n Jessica Tisch<\/strong> has held senior information technology jobs in the de Blasio administration; she\u2019s currently Adams\u2019s sanitation commissioner and is leading a major overhaul of how the city picks up garbage. She\u2019s part of the Loews Corporation\u2019s Tisch family, so she\u2019d presumably have access to the necessary campaign money and be popular with the city\u2019s business community. But Tisch is a virtual unknown with voters. Ritchie Torres,<\/strong> however, is very good at self-promotion. Currently a 36-year-old congressman representing a South Bronx district, Torres is an electric and sometimes polarizing presence. \u201cHe\u2019s ambitious, Latino, and gay, and real estate and Jewish donors love him,\u201d a Democratic operative tells me.<\/p>\n The lurking disgraced governor<\/strong><\/p>\n Last November, shortly after FBI agents suddenly confronted Adams and seized his electronic devices, allies of Andrew Cuomo<\/strong><\/a> were already gaming out the advantages of a special election, telling me how the compressed campaign schedule would accentuate Cuomo\u2019s strengths: nearly $8 million in campaign cash and much greater name recognition than his putative rivals. Those edges are still valid, and Cuomo has since made multiple speeches in Black churches around the city, keeping himself in front of a crucial voting group, especially in what would likely be a low-turnout contest.<\/p>\n Yet some recent reasons for Cuomo\u2019s high name recognition aren\u2019t helpful. In 2021, he quit as governor<\/a> under a barrage of sexual harassment allegations (all of which he continues to deny). And just two weeks ago, Cuomo testified before a congressional committee investigating his handling of the COVID pandemic; his administration was criticized for concealing the actual number of deaths in nursing homes (Cuomo disputes this interpretation). If he runs for mayor, though, Cuomo would be the favorite. Probably. \u201cI don\u2019t know,\u201d a former ally of the governor says. \u201cThe city has really changed. Are all those ethnic white voters who loved Mario and Andrew still around? And would Black voters go for him against a Black candidate?\u201d<\/p>\n The disgraced governor\u2019s mortal enemy<\/strong><\/p>\n Which brings us to Tish James.<\/strong> She has previously talked of mayor being the job she dreamed of someday holding. James planned to run in 2021. But in 2018, scandal forced Eric Schneiderman<\/strong> out as state attorney general, so James ran\u2014with the crucial backing of Cuomo\u2014and won, which helped pave the way for Adams, her fellow Brooklynite, in the subsequent mayoral race. Relations between James and Cuomo have changed, to say the least. He blames her<\/a> for using the sexual harassment allegations to railroad him out of Albany to stage her own gubernatorial bid (a motivation she dismisses, though James did run briefly in 2021 before ceding the race to Hochul). A showdown between James and Cuomo for City Hall would be irresistible theater. But it\u2019s still hard to see James giving up her AG perch. If Adams quits and Cuomo gets in, however, James will come under considerable pressure to make a bid. \u201cI think,\u201d one of the city\u2019s best-connected political players says, \u201cshe is the only one who can beat Andrew.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n