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The 2024 presidential election cycle is the first time in at least 60 years that a single candidate hasn\u2019t been ahead 5 points or more in the polls for three-plus weeks, according to an analysis<\/a> by Harry Enten<\/strong>, host of CNN\u2019s Margins of Error. That margin has existed in every campaign since 1964, Enten explained, except this one\u2014including when President Joe Biden<\/strong> was still running.<\/p>\n \u201cThe race has been consistently close in a way I\u2019ve never seen,\u201d Enten wrote on X. \u201cThe bottom line is this election is up for grabs with 2 months to go.\u201d<\/p>\n Several national and battleground state polls show<\/a> Vice President Kamala Harris<\/strong> and former president Donald Trump<\/strong> either tied or within a few percentage points of one another\u2014the results seeming to hover squarely within margins of error.<\/p>\n Pollsters in this election have had a uniquely tumultuous campaign to track. From Biden\u2019s fraught debate performance<\/a> in June to the failed assassination attempt<\/a> on Trump in July, followed by Biden bowing out of the race<\/a> and Harris\u2019s energized and expedited<\/a> summer campaign, it\u2019s felt like each week has brought another unprecedented event for Americans to weigh in on.<\/p>\n Plus, according to a Pew Research Center report<\/a>, the mere presence of Trump on the ballot can negatively impact the reliability of polling. \u201cCompared with other elections in the past 20 years, polls have been less accurate when Donald Trump is on the ballot,\u201d Pew\u2019s vice president Courtney Kennedy<\/strong> and senior survey advisor Scott Keeter<\/strong> wrote.<\/p>\n This discrepancy, they found, is likely due to two things. First, pollsters often use past election turnout to predict who will vote in the upcoming race, and \u201cresearch has found that Trump is popular among people who tend to sit out midterms but turn out for him in presidential election years.\u201d Second, Kennedy and Keeter note, \u201cRepublicans in the Trump era have become a little less likely than Democrats to participate in polls.\u201d<\/p>\n In addition to documenting a historically close race, pollsters have been tracking what issues are driving voters to the ballot box this year.<\/p>\n An August Economist\/YouGov poll<\/a> of 1,567 American adults found that \u201cInflation\/prices\u201d was the top issue on voters\u2019 minds, at 24%, followed by \u201cJobs and the economy\u201d at 13%, and \u201cImmigration\u201d at 12%.<\/p>\n A set of New York Times<\/em>\/Siena College polls<\/a> of registered voters in seven battleground states conducted from August 6 to 15 found that \u201cFor women younger than 45, abortion has overtaken the economy as the single most important issue to their vote.\u201d<\/p>\n Throughout the 2024 campaign cycle, one thing has remained notably clear: this election could be decided by just a few key battleground states.<\/p>\n Democratic voters in Omaha, Nebraska, have been putting signs in their yards with a singular blue dot<\/a>, a symbol of Harris\u2019s potential stronghold in a red state. Nebraska is one of only two states that awards electoral votes by congressional district, rather than by statewide winner.<\/p>\n \u201cFor all of the pathways for Harris and Trump to reach the White House,\u201d CNN\u2019s Jeff Zeleny<\/strong> writes, \u201cthe race for 270 electoral votes could come down to Nebraska\u2019s sprawling 2nd District covering Omaha and parts of two nearby counties, which hold many similarities to suburban areas across the country.\u201d<\/p>\n On top of Omaha\u2019s blue dot, the final tallies in seven states<\/a>\u2014Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada\u2014may grant either Trump or Harris the 270 needed to win.<\/p>\n