First came the coronavirus pandemic. Then came so-called “revenge travel.” Now, it seems like the mad dash to Europe is an annual phenomenon that’s here to stay.
And not just during the peak summer months.
In recent weeks, a host of U.S. airlines have said 2025 is shaping up to be another banner year for transatlantic travel.
Speaking on a conference call last week, United Airlines executives cited “unbelievably strong” performance for the airline’s hefty array of international flights — a portfolio that will expand this year with splashy new flights to the likes of Mongolia, Senegal and Greenland.
But the carrier is also reporting another strong offseason for Europe travel, with customers booking flights across the Atlantic in droves even during the winter months that in pre-pandemic years were often the doldrums for transatlantic travel.
“Europe is becoming more of a year-round destination,” United chief commercial officer Andrew Nocella said last week, noting the pre-pandemic days of light travel demand in January and February are a distant memory.
“Europe always did — not so great, is the polite way to put it — particularly from Jan. 15 through mid-March,” Nocella added. “Now, we’re seeing a totally different result where people are willing to go on a southern European vacation.”
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Europe becomes year-round destination
It’s a trend TPG reported on nearly a year ago and predicted would continue this year in our 2025 Travel Trends Report.
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Suffice it to say, it’s ringing true again in the new year. And airlines have updated their flight schedules accordingly.
Compared with 2019, airlines this January, February and March will operate about 30% more flights to southern Europe destinations in Italy, Spain and Portugal, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium.
There are myriad reasons to travel during the winter, early spring and autumn months.
It’s a way to escape the hottest season in Europe, where air conditioning isn’t a guarantee at many older hotels and short-term rental properties.
And then there’s a matter of the crowds, like those I witnessed near the Trevi Fountain in Rome late last summer — not to mention those that have sparked a backlash in Barcelona and led local officials in Venice, Italy, to double the number of days that city’s tax on day visitors will be in effect in 2025.
“People are finding that, particularly in southern Europe, the weather is actually pretty nice in the winter and the streets aren’t as crowded. So it’s not a bad time to go,” noted Glen Hauenstein, president of Delta Air Lines, which itself is projecting another strong year for European travel.
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Airfare spikes slower in Europe this year
There’s also a matter of cost.
Overall, the airfare picture in 2025 isn’t looking as consumer-friendly as it did a year ago, with overall higher fares a central finding in booking app Hopper’s recently released consumer travel index.
Airlines had hoped that would be the case when they made sweeping route cuts for the second half of 2024 after a glut of domestic flights fueled stiff competition, leading to lower profits.
Yet, Hopper reports, Europe fares are currently trending about 6% lower than last year.
Compare that to overall airfare that’s spiked 12% year over year in January, Hopper notes — with steep 15% and 19% gains, respectively, for April and May flights.
And it’s not just airfare that’s inspiring European vacations in 2025, Hauenstein said. It’s the strength of the dollar.
“Go to a restaurant in New York and then go to a restaurant in Europe, you’ll see a vast difference in your bill. And so, this is a great time to travel to Europe. People are seeing that,” Hauenstein said on Delta’s earnings call earlier this month.
Sustained demand
Crowds, fares and dinner bills aside, it seems there’s a driving force behind these European trips that has 2025 shaping up to be another big year across the pond.
In a report released this week, consulting giant Deloitte noted a distinct “post-pandemic reprioritization” that’s inspiring consumers to rework other parts of their budget to ensure their annual getaway happens. Forty percent of those travelers reported they’d do that because “travel has become more important” to them since the pandemic.
It’s a trend we’ve heard airlines reporting for the last several years — one that appears to be on track to continue in 2025.
“We’re seeing robust demand in the off-peak,” Hauenstein added. “And I’m sure that the peak is going to be even better.”
If you’re hoping to get a 2025 trip to Europe on the books, here are some things you can do now to set yourself up for your ideal seat — or redemption.
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Start looking now for lie-flat redemptions
Hoping for a business-class redemption in a lie-flat seat across the Atlantic (or Pacific) in 2025? Even if you’re planning to travel during the summer months, now is a good time to start searching for the best award space.
Keep in mind that even if you book your flight and later need to change your plans, many airlines will let you cancel award tickets and keep your miles. So, there’s little downside to getting a jump-start on planning.
Check international airlines
Don’t count solely on U.S. airlines for your next award flight. International airlines’ loyalty programs can offer some of the strongest redemptions today.
For instance, you can transfer points from several major credit card programs to Air France and KLM’s Flying Blue or to British Airways, Iberia, Qatar Airways and other programs that jointly use Avios as a loyalty currency.
This can help you stretch your credit card points for a cheaper points flight overseas.
Aim for August (or after) if your schedule allows
In recent years, airlines have reported the “peak summer” travel season has shifted earlier in the calendar thanks to changing school calendars, meaning the crowds tend to be thinner in August than in June or July.
Lower demand often fuels lower prices, whether you’re paying cash or redeeming points or miles.
And, as always, the autumn months remain a great time to take a trip.
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