A few days ago, Netflix was well-positioned to win the first best-picture Oscar in the company’s history. Emilia Pérez led the Oscar nominations with 13—the most ever for a non-English language film—and had already shown its strength with top wins at the European Film Awards and the Golden Globes. Unlike past Netflix heavyweights like Roma and The Power of the Dog, Emilia had received a SAG nomination for best ensemble (signaling strength with actors, the largest branch in the Academy). The film had also won the town over with its mix of Hollywood veterans and newcomers, the brazenly original filmmaking of Jacques Audiard, and its inclusive messaging—well-timed, as the second Trump era has gotten off to an aggressive start.
The key to the canny campaign’s success was the centering of Karla Sofía Gascón. While the film features American stars Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez, the former of whom also has more screen time than anyone else in the film, Gascón was Emilia’s boundary-breaking discovery. She’d elicit applause, laughter, and tears at Q&As as she introduced herself to tastemakers and power players. Just a few weeks ago, she officially became the first out trans actor to ever receive an Oscar nomination.
But it feels safe to say at this point that she will not win best actress. Gascón has faced widespread backlash since Thursday, when her social media history—littered with blatantly Islamophobic, racist, and other crudely offensive remarks—became public knowledge. Since then, she has arguably made the situation worse by releasing a string of public apologies—first to the media, then on Instagram (after she deleted her X account, where the most offensive posts had been discovered), then on CNN—all of which have been overshadowed by her claims that there is a conspiracy against her, and her reluctance to fully own up to and express regret for her past comments. Netflix has distanced itself from Gascón: Vanity Fair has learned that the studio had no involvement in or awareness of CNN’s Sunday interview with Gascón until it went live. Saldaña also expressed disapproval for Gascón’s comments, without saying her costar’s name, at a London event on Friday.
The Gascón scandal has thrown the whole Emilia Pérez campaign into jeopardy. The film has long led a controversial existence online, with trans and Latino viewers widely criticizing its representation of their communities. Still, the industry fell head over heels for Emilia’s defiant originality and bighearted performances. Audiard and his cast had been all over LA and New York for months, packing theaters and mingling. The film was not a hit on Netflix (it never cracked the streamer’s top 10 rankings in the US) and has been plagued by poor audience scores; its success as an awards contender can be credited instead to a brilliant ground game, which helped Emilia fever slowly but surely sweep the town.
If you’re not an Oppenheimer-sized juggernaut, this is the standard playbook for a modern best-picture Oscar campaign. Academy members increasingly vote with their hearts: love for Parasite, CODA, and Everything Everywhere All at Once was palpable around Los Angeles by the time final Oscar voting started. Those feelings deepened as each of those films’ casts found admirers, traveling from event to event and screening to screening. Each of those movies defined the odds in its own way—a non-English language film, a small indie released in the summer, a genre mashup. Emilia was well on its way to continuing in their tradition.
But now the linchpin of that strategy has turned radioactive. As I covered the awards trail this season, I kept hearing about Gascón’s performance and her campaign as a big reason why voters got so passionately behind the film in the first place. The opportunity to vote for a history-making nomination, to champion a film with values in subtle but clear opposition to the Trump administration, was obvious. This was something for the industry to feel good about.
But while Emilia Pérez still has its champions, it’s no longer a cause to rally around. Even Netflix seems to be running away from what was once the film’s main selling point. And the campaign does not yet have a clear new angle: A new FYC ad all but omits Gascón’s participation from the film, a most bitter irony for the actor behind its title character.
Emilia’s surest bets for Oscar wins—supporting actress (Saldaña), original song, and international feature—are now imperiled, since the whole Academy votes for every category. But they’re not off the table. How Saldaña will approach the next month, after previously campaigning as a big supporter of Gascón, remains to be seen. Whether Emilia’s international rival, the Brazilian drama I’m Still Here, can continue to surge past it is an even bigger question mark. And how’s this for timing: This weekend, the Critics Choice Awards and both the directors and producers guild ceremonies will be held. Voting took place before the Gascón scandal erupted. The one thing that Emilia—always an unconventional frontrunner—has consistently had going for it is the messiness of the season as a whole. As long as that continues, it cannot be fully counted out.
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