It’s tough to predict what will happen at the 2024 Golden Globe Awards, a ceremony presented by an organization that’s endured no small amount of turmoil in the last three years. We know that the show will be broadcast on Sunday, January 7, for the first time on CBS; we know it’ll be hosted by comedian Jo Koy; we know that in addition to all the usual Golden Globe nominations, the proceedings will include two new categories, for blockbuster films and standup specials. Other than that, it’s anyone’s guess who will actually win a Globe this year, on either the film or TV sides of the aisle.
Still, VF’s awards obsessives gave it our best shot, peering into our crystal balls to forecast which stars and projects will go home with some shiny new hardware on Sunday night. Read on for our best guesses in every category.
FILM AWARDS
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Anatomy of a Fall
WINNER: Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest
Now that the HFPA has added new voters to the roster, it’s become a very different awards show to predict. The old HFPA would have gone for Oppenheimer, we think—a big, successful American movie from a British director whom everyone respects. But the new voters—including many journalists of varying stripes—might tilt slightly artier. Which is why we’re predicting Killers of the Flower Moon, a consensus choice between big-name commercial fare and more modern, politically minded cinema. —Richard Lawson
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Air
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
May December
WINNER: Poor Things
The fact that the group formally known as the HFPA gave this award to The Banshees of Inisherin last year over eventual best picture winner Everything Everywhere All At Once confirms that we can’t assume their choice will line up with the best picture race at the Oscars. We’ve got several strong contenders nominated here, including American Fiction, The Holdovers, and May December. Most likely, though, it’s a race between blockbuster Barbie (which has the most Globes noms of any film) and the critically acclaimed Poor Things. Will the Globes voters go auteur and weird (they nominated Yorgos Lanthimos’s The Favorite in 2018, but it lost to Green Book), or will they just honor the box office juggernaut Barbie? It’ll be close, but we think the addition of the new Cinematic Achievement category (where Barbie will most likely win) actually hurts its chances here. —Rebecca Ford
Best Motion Picture – Animated
WINNER: The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Suzume
Wish
The surprise box office success of what may or may not be Hayao Miyazaki’s final film seems like enough to push this one across the finish line, even if Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is the more mainstream critical hit. Time for those international Globes voters to prove just how internationally-minded they can be. —Katey Rich
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
WINNER: Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
John Wick: Chapter 4
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Gotta be Barbie, right? Because it sure seems like this entire category was created in order to give Barbie a Golden Globe. Unless, of course, it’s Taylor Swift. But no: getting Swift to attend the ceremony by slipping her a nomination is probably victory enough for the Eras concert movie. So again, I’ll say: it’s gotta be Barbie. But only because Zack Snyder’s Justice League isn’t eligible. —Hillary Busis
Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language
WINNER: Anatomy of a Fall
Fallen Leaves
Io Capitano
Past Lives
Society of the Snow
The Zone of Interest
This category has probably never been so hotly contested, given that fully half of the nominees—Past Lives, The Zone of Interest, and Anatomy of a Fall—are also competing up top in the best motion picture (drama) field. Of course, only one of this trio is competing for the equivalent Oscar, with France having submitted the Globes-snubbed The Taste of Things over Anatomy as its official contender and Past Lives not eligible as an American film. This hinky Globes rule, allowing non-English-language U.S. dramas to contend here, has favored such fare as Minari in the past. But I’m reminded of when another such case, The Farewell, lost to an even stronger international Oscar player in Parasite. Not to say Anatomy of a Fall is at that eventual best-picture phenomenon level this awards season, but Justine Triet’s layered legal drama has been cleaning up on the critics’ circuit thus far, and the Globes’ wide embrace of it suggests this may continue. —David Canfield
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Annette Bening, Nyad
