When Senator Bob Menendez left the courthouse in Newark in 2017 after the federal corruption case brought against him ended in a mistrial, he issued a stark message to his perceived political opponents. “To those who were digging my political grave so they could jump into my seat, I know who you are and I won’t forget you,” the New Jersey lawmaker said then. When asked to elaborate, Menendez responded, “it speaks for itself. They know who they are and I know who they are.” The following year, he won reelection to his third term by a significant margin.
Now, six years after avoiding a conviction as the result of a deadlocked jury, the Justice Department and the FBI are reportedly investigating Menendez again—specifically whether he and his wife, Nadine, didn’t report gifts of money, jewelry, a luxury car, and an apartment in Washington in exchange for political favors for a halal meat company, which is also under investigation. “I am sure it is going to end up in absolutely nothing,” Menendez said in a statement to NBC News. And just as a cloud of potential legal trouble hangs over him once more, Menendez is up for reelection in 2024. (Nadine’s attorney declined to comment to The New York Times.)
Headed into the 2024 election, the stakes for the Democratic Party couldn’t be higher. Details of the Menendez investigation are still coming out—including a curious anecdote involving $250,000 worth of bars of gold bullion belonging to Nadine reported by The New York Times)—raising questions whether the senator will be a liability for Democrats’ ability to hold on to their Senate majority. After all, Republicans are no strangers to winning statewide in New Jersey, and just two years ago Democratic governor Phil Murphy faced an unexpectedly close reelection race.
Yet, back in the Garden State, there’s a growing consensus that Menendez, however embattled, is a politician made of Teflon. “He’s been down this road before…It’s just not stuck,” a political strategist who has worked for Republicans in New Jersey, told Vanity Fair. “It would get a little bit of coverage and like everybody would move on and people in New Jersey, other elected officials in the party, would kind of keep their powder dry about it.”
A New Jersey politician echoed this sentiment: “The last time around no one ever wavered,” they said. Plus this time, there’s bigger news in the politician-faces-major-legal-ramifications arena.
“I would’ve probably at one point said I thought it was maybe specific to New Jersey, but I just feel politics in general is trending this way where things that were scandals previously—and maybe New Jersey was ahead of the curve on this for Menendez—that otherwise would be an issue just like aren’t for voters anymore and they’re willing to look the other way,” the political strategist told VF. With a thrice-indicted former president leading the Republican Party primary, does the Menendez investigation even register? “It’s almost like nothing shocks anymore.”
Nationally, a person close to Democrats’ thinking on Senate campaign strategy, said Menendez isn’t a top concern at the moment—especially as Democrats have to hold on to seats in red states like Montana and West Virginia. (Menendez has not officially announced that he is running for reelection in 2024.) “New Jersey elects Democrats to federal office and it’s highly unlikely to be amongst the states that will determine control of the Senate,” a national Democratic strategist said, noting that Democrats are monitoring the race.
Menendez also appears to be in luck. There are enough toss-up races in traditionally swing states that Republicans are “going to be laser focused” on races in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada, in addition to Montana and West Virginia, per Republican strategist Alex Conant, who worked on Marco Rubio’s campaign. And New Jersey is such an expensive media market to play in, it’s more likely that Republicans would prioritize investing elsewhere. “That said, we live in unpredictable political times, and stranger things have happened,” Conant said. But New Jersey Republicans haven’t put forward any top-tier candidates for Menendez’s seat, and are reportedly eyeing some down-ballot races that may be more competitive this cycle.
The Senate has long been a white whale for Republicans in the state, who have managed to clinch the governor’s mansion but seen Democrats in the two Senate seats for decades. “If [Chris] Christie had run for senator, he would never have won,” another strategist in the state said.
Meanwhile, Menendez is insulated from any meaningful primary challenge, insiders say. “New Jersey is still very dominated by a county kind of boss structure…We’re the last vestiges of a machine-style selection process,” the politician said. “It’s next to impossible to win a statewide primary.” In 2018, Menendez beat his primary opponent, Lisa McCormick, 62.3% to 37.7%. He went on to win handily over Republican Bob Hugin by 54% to 42%.
Plus, if things really do go south for Menendez, Murphy is in the governor’s mansion, not Christie—the governor in power for much of the time Menendez was first under investigation—who would have appointed a Republican in Menendez’s stead had the senator stepped down. But getting to that point would necessitate much more than just an investigation: “It probably would take an indictment, a timeline with the indictment, and then some conversation with him before you would see any major party figure call for him to step down,” the New Jersey politician said.
