2024 Oscar Predictions: The Frontrunners and Their Challengers

The dirty little secret about the Oscar game is that there is no such thing as a “frontrunner.” Oh, we pretend there is. We imagine it. We predict it. We manifest it. But it actually doesn’t exist.

Best Picture — Frontrunners:
Oppenheimer — Cillian Murphy, Robert Downey Jr.
Barbie — Ryan Gosling, Margot Robbie
Poor Things — Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo
Killers of the Flower Moon — Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, Lily Gladstone
The Holdovers — Paul Giamatti, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dominic Sessa

Challengers:
Maestro — Bradley Cooper, Carey Mulligan
American Fiction — Jeffrey Wright
The Boys in the Boat — Joel Edgerton
Past Lives — Greta Lee
Anatomy of a Fall — Sandra Huller
The Color Purple — Fantasia Barrino
Rustin — Colman Domingo
The Zone of Interest — Sandra Huller
Napoleon — Joaquin Phoenix
The Bikeriders — Jodie Comer

Best Actor — Frontrunners
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Challengers:
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon
Michael Fassbender, The Killer

Best Actress — Frontrunners
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Annette Bening, Nyad
Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Challengers:
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Natalie Portman, May December
Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
Helen Mirren, Golda
Aunanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin
Greta Lee, Past Lives

The rest at the source